In 2024, with the rapid release of N-type production capacity and the rapid increase in market share, the market structure of various technologies is constantly being reshaped, and the TOPCon technology route has become a well-deserved mainstream battery route.

According to statistics, by the end of 2024, the battery cell production capacity is expected to be about 1417GW, and the N-type battery cell production capacity is about 1078GW, accounting for about 76%, and the N-type era has officially arrived; among them, the TOPCon battery production capacity is about 941GW, accounting for about 66.4%. The N-type technology route based on TOPCon is accelerating in market applications. It is expected that by 2029, the output of TOPCon batteries will account for more than 84%, far ahead of other technology routes.

Steady expansion and landing, TOPCon market further expands

With the acceleration of N-type product mass production, all links in the industrial chain have made new layouts around the landing of N-type production capacity, and the trend of each company's choice of technology route is more certain, and TOPCon technology will be fully implemented.

Silicon wafer segment: History has decided that the P-type era has officially ended

According to statistics, from the monthly production schedule in the first half of 2024, the output of N-type silicon wafers accounted for about 85% in June, and the production of P-type silicon wafers was severely reduced. In the second half of the year, as the terminal demand weakened, the P-type production capacity that did not have room for upgrading and transformation was likely to be cleared (P was upgraded to TOPCon). It is estimated that by the end of 2024, the output of N-type silicon wafers will account for about 75%. With the rapid release of downstream N-type battery production capacity, the output proportion of N-type silicon wafers will increase rapidly at the same time.

Solar cell segment: Technology transformation boom, head enterprises expand production

From the second half of 2023 to the first half of 2024, TOPCon production capacity will be released at an accelerated pace. With the continuous increase of new production capacity and the mastery of TOPCon battery technology by mid- and tail-end battery companies, the barriers to efficient TOPCon battery production will gradually be eliminated.

According to statistics, by the end of 2024, the cell production capacity will be about 1417GW, of which the N-type cell production capacity will be about 1078GW, accounting for about 76%; of which, the TOPCon cell production capacity will be about 941GW, accounting for about 66.4%. In addition, it is expected that by 2029, the output of TOPCon will exceed 84%. In the 5-year cycle, TOPCon will still be the mainstream technology of N-type.

Component link: bidding data confirms the continuous growth of terminal demand

Behind the growth of market data is the continuous growth of terminal demand. As the terminal demand officially kicks off, the proportion of N-type components will increase rapidly.

According to statistics, in the first half of 2024, the bidding capacity of domestic central state-owned enterprises for component procurement was about 108GW, of which N-type components were about 90.3GW, accounting for about 84%, and the penetration rate accelerated, becoming the absolute mainstream. And the premium over PERC components is maintained at about 0.05 yuan/W, and the cost-effectiveness advantage is prominent.

Through the bidding of major owners, it can be seen that the market demand for N-type and P-type has been clearly differentiated. The latest bidding data shows that the proportion of N-type bidding in the component bidding in May and June 2024 exceeded 93% and 82% respectively. It is expected that with the further implementation of demand, the market share of N-type components in 2024 will soar from 23% in 2023 to 73%, achieving rapid growth.

Focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, exploring unlimited possibilities

The current development of TOPCon technology has two major characteristics: higher and higher efficiency; lower and lower costs. In June, the N-P price difference remained at around 0.05 yuan/W. The narrowing of the price difference relies more on the promotion and implementation of technology, products and applications. To achieve this goal, "increasing efficiency and reducing costs" has become the key. With the continuous deepening of technology research and development, from the perspective of achieving industrialization at a lower cost, TOPCon will still have an absolute leading advantage in the next five years.

Technological evolution provides a new path for cost reduction and efficiency improvement

In the short term, TOPCon is still the most cost-effective technical route. If photovoltaic technology is to continue to develop, then "higher and higher efficiency, lower and lower costs, and higher and higher reliability" is the constant underlying logic. Although it is at the "forefront" of the booming development of various technologies, TOPCon is still the most cost-effective technology route at present.

In the long run, the ultimate goal of reducing costs and increasing efficiency will drive technological development. Subsequent technological development will further achieve the superposition of multiple advanced technologies, equipment cost reduction, efficiency breakthroughs, and further cost reduction on this goal, and has great potential in the future.

With the end of the TOPCon capacity expansion cycle, TOPCon technology will achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement at a faster pace. From 2024 to 2026, TOPCon battery technology will enter the 2.0 era, and TOPCon batteries will enter a new round of technological iteration. Technologies such as front boron diffusion, back polysilicon layer optimization, front contact (LECO), and edge PET are being introduced at an accelerated pace. It is expected that with the mature mass production of double-sided Poly technology, the TOPCon 2.0 era will officially enter the 3.0 life cycle. Considering the excellent adaptability of TOPCon battery technology and the integration of multiple technologies and material innovations, TOPCon stacking will achieve technological breakthroughs and open up new possibilities.

In the second quarter of 2024, LECO has become the standard configuration of TOPCon batteries. The subsequent efficiency improvement of manufacturers will focus on the optimization of passivation structure. At the current node, the mass production efficiency of TOPCon batteries with advanced production capacity is in the range of 25.8-26.3%, and the storage efficiency is in the range of 24.6%-25.1% (an increase of 0.6%pct compared with the beginning of 23). The focus of manufacturers has gradually shifted from battery efficiency improvement to the reduction of component CTM.

With the sharp rise in silver powder prices, the cost of battery slurry has also risen. The introduction of 0BB technology may be accelerated. Some leading manufacturers have completed the installation of 0BB technology, but the empirical effect remains to be investigated. The evolution of technology has led to the emergence of high-efficiency products that meet the new standards. During SNEC, the emergence of stacked grid technology also provided a new path for TOPCon technology to reduce costs and increase efficiency.

With a huge market base and the support of other multiple technologies, the future development of TOPCon technology still has countless possibilities.

The future has come, and the layout of leading enterprises leads the industry forward

TOPCon, as an N-type technology, has the characteristics of being compatible with PERC production and process. In the window period of technology iteration from P to N-type, leading enterprises firmly choose and quickly deploy.

At present, JinkoSolar, Tongwei Co., Ltd., JA Solar, Trina Solar, Chint New Energy, Jietai and other companies have achieved large-scale mass production of N-type TOPCon batteries. Since the beginning of this year, many projects involving TOPCon have been started or signed, and leading enterprises have increased their investment efforts, showing strong confidence in related TOPCon products.

The production costs of leading battery cell manufacturers are generally better than those of mid- and tail manufacturers due to their advantages in technology, process and scale, and the advanced production capacity of leading manufacturers will continue to lead. Under the background of the overall downward trend of prices in the industrial chain, integrated enterprises with more high-efficiency, high-yield and low-cost TOPCon production capacity are expected to obtain more profits.

Summary

Looking back on the development history of the industry, it can be found that the innovation of technology is closely followed by implementation in market applications, which is the foundation for maintaining the healthy development of the industry, stimulating more diverse application scenarios, and continuously promoting the green and efficient development of the industry. If it is the demand that drives the rapid growth of the TOPCon product market in 2024, then with the explosive evolution of various technologies, through the continuous transformation of various companies and the choice of the general direction of the market, TOPCon technology will still have great potential in the five-year cycle to 2029. Other N-type technologies such as BC cannot become mainstream due to their complex processes, instability caused by the characteristics of the battery structure, and performance deficiencies such as reduced power generation per watt due to low bifaciality. They can only be used in some market segments, which are expected to account for about 10%. In five years, TOPCon will be more suitable as the bottom battery of the stacked battery, and TOPCon+perovskite stacked battery technology will continue to burst out with strong vitality.